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Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change - Committee On Extreme Weather Events And Climate Change Attribution - Bog -

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change - Committee On Extreme Weather Events And Climate Change Attribution - Bog -

As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Table of ContentsFront MatterSummary1 Introduction2 Framing3 Methods of Event Attribution4 Attribution of Particular Types of Extreme Events5 ConclusionsReferencesAppendix A: Statement of TaskAppendix B: Workshop AgendaAppendix C: Committee Mini Biographies

DKK 474.00
3

Global Change and Extreme Hydrology - Water Science And Technology Board - Bog - National Academies Press - Plusbog.dk

Global Change and Extreme Hydrology - Water Science And Technology Board - Bog - National Academies Press - Plusbog.dk

Climate theory dictates that core elements of the climate system, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, and reservoirs of atmospheric and soil moisture, should change as the climate warms, both in their means and extremes. A major challenge that faces the climate and hydrologic science communities is understanding the nature of these ongoing changes in climate and hydrology and the apparent anomalies that exist in reconciling their extreme manifestations. The National Research Council (NRC) Committee on Hydrologic Science (COHS) held a workshop on January 5-6, 2010, that examined how climate warming translates into hydrologic extremes like floods and droughts. The workshop brought together three groups of experts. The first two groups consisted of atmospheric scientists and hydrologists focused on the scientific underpinnings and empirical evidence linking climate variability to hydrologic extremes. The third group consisted of water managers and decision-makers charged with the design and operation of water systems that in the future must be made resilient in light of a changing climate and an environment of hydrologic extremes. Global Change and Extreme Hydrology summarizes the proceedings of this workshop. This report presents an overview of the current state of the science in terms of climate change and extreme hydrologic events. It examines the "conventional wisdom" that climate change will "accelerate" the hydrologic cycle, fuel more evaporation, and generate more precipitation, based on an increased capacity of a warmer atmosphere to hold more water vapor. The report also includes descriptions of the changes in frequency and severity of extremes, the ability (or inability) to model these changes, and the problem of communicating the best science to water resources practitioners in useful forums. Table of ContentsFront MatterSummaryIntroductionFindingsReferencesAppendixesAppendix A: Statement of TaskAppendix B: AgendaAppendix C: Speaker AbstractsAppendix D: Summary of PresentationsAppendix E: Workshop Participants

DKK 201.00
3

Frontiers in Data Analytics and Monitoring Tools for Extreme Materials - Condensed Matter And Materials Research Committee - Bog - National Academies

Review of the Need for a Large-Scale Test Facility for Research on the Effects of Extreme Winds on Structures - National Academy Of Sciences - Bog -

Computing and Communications in the Extreme - Computer Science And Telecommunications Board - Bog - National Academies Press - Plusbog.dk

Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts - Space Studies Board - Bog - National Academies Press - Plusbog.dk

Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts - Space Studies Board - Bog - National Academies Press - Plusbog.dk

The adverse effects of extreme space weather on modern technology—power grid outages, high-frequency communication blackouts, spacecraft anomalies—are well known and well documented, and the physical processes underlying space weather are also generally well understood. Less well documented and understood, however, are the potential economic and societal impacts of the disruption of critical technological systems by severe space weather. This volume, an extended four-color summary of the book, Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts, addresses the questions of space weather risk assessment and management. The workshop on which the books are based brought together representatives of industry, the government, and academia to consider both direct and collateral effects of severe space weather events, the current state of the space weather services infrastructure in the United States, the needs of users of space weather data and services, and the ramifications of future technological developments for contemporary society's vulnerability to space weather. The workshop concluded with a discussion of un- or underexplored topics that would yield the greatest benefits in space weather risk management. Table of ContentsFront MatterExtended SummaryTHE SOCIETAL CONTEXTTHE IMPACT OF SPACE WEATHERSPACE WEATHER INFRASTRUCTUREUNDERSTANDING THE SOCIETAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF SEVERE SPACE WEATHER

DKK 169.00
3

An Assessment of Native Seed Needs and the Capacity for Their Supply - Division Of Behavioral And Social Sciences And Education - Bog - National

An Assessment of Native Seed Needs and the Capacity for Their Supply - Division Of Behavioral And Social Sciences And Education - Bog - National

Extreme weather and wildfires, intensified by climate change, are damaging the native plant communities of landscapes across the United States. Native plant communities are foundational to thriving ecosystems, delivering goods and services that regulate the environment and support life, provide food and shelter for a wide range of native animals, and embody a wealth of genetic information with many beneficial applications. Restoring impaired ecosystems requires a supply of diverse native plant seeds that are well suited to the climates, soils, and other living species of the system. This report examines the needs for native plant restoration and other activities, provides recommendations for improving the reliability, predictability, and performance of the native seed supply, and presents an ambitious agenda for action. An Assessment of Native Seed Needs and the Capacity for Their Supply considers the various challenges facing our natural landscapes and calls for a coordinated public-private effort to scale-up and secure a cost-effective national native seed supply. Table of ContentsFront MatterSummary1 Introduction2 Description of the Information-Gathering Strategy3 Native Seed Needs and the Federal Government4 State Government Uses of Native Seed5 Tribal Uses of Native Seed6 Cooperative Partnerships for Native Seed Development, Supply, and Usage7 Seed Suppliers8 Knowledge Gaps and Research Needs to Support the Native Seed Supply9 Summary Conclusions and Recommendations for the Native Seed SupplyAppendix 1: Committee BiographiesAppendix 2A: Semi-Structured Interview Guide for Federal AgenciesAppendix 2B: State Government Departments Survey Invitation LetterAppendix 2C: State Government Departments Web Survey InstrumentAppendix 2D: State Government Departments Survey Frequency DistributionsAppendix 2E: Supplier Survey Invitation LetterAppendix 2F: Supplier Web Survey InstrumentAppendix 2G: Supplier Survey Frequency DistributionsAppendix 2H: Public Information-Gathering Sessions In-Person and Virtual Agendas

DKK 312.00
3

Severe Space Weather Events - Space Studies Board - Bog - National Academies Press - Plusbog.dk

Severe Space Weather Events - Space Studies Board - Bog - National Academies Press - Plusbog.dk

The adverse effects of extreme space weather on modern technology—power grid outages, high-frequency communication blackouts, spacecraft anomalies—are well known and well documented, and the physical processes underlying space weather are also generally well understood. Less well documented and understood, however, are the potential economic and societal impacts of the disruption of critical technological systems by severe space weather. As a first step toward determining the socioeconomic impacts of extreme space weather events and addressing the questions of space weather risk assessment and management, a public workshop was held in May 2008. The workshop brought together representatives of industry, the government, and academia to consider both direct and collateral effects of severe space weather events, the current state of the space weather services infrastructure in the United States, the needs of users of space weather data and services, and the ramifications of future technological developments for contemporary society's vulnerability to space weather. The workshop concluded with a discussion of un- or underexplored topics that would yield the greatest benefits in space weather risk management. Table of ContentsFront MatterSummary1 Introduction2 Space Weather Impacts in Retrospect3 Space Weather and Society4 Current Space Weather Services Infrastructure5 User Perspectives on Space Weather Products6 Satisfying Space Weather User Needs7 Future Solutions, Vulnerabilities, and Risks8 Facilitated Open Audience Discussion: The Way ForwardAppendix A: Statement of TaskAppendix B: Workshop Agenda and ParticipantsAppendix C: Abstracts Prepared by Workshop PanelistsAppendix D: Biographies of Committee Members and StaffAppendix E: Select Acronyms and Terms

DKK 292.00
3

Modeling the Health Risks of Climate Change - National Research Council - Bog - National Academies Press - Plusbog.dk

Modeling the Health Risks of Climate Change - National Research Council - Bog - National Academies Press - Plusbog.dk

Climate change poses risks to human health and well-being through shifting weather patterns, increases in frequency and intensity of heat waves and other extreme weather events, rising sea levels, ocean acidification, and other environmental effects. Those risks occur against a backdrop of changing socioeconomic conditions, medical technology, population demographics, environmental conditions, and other factors that are important in determining health. Models of health risks that reflect how health determinants and climate changes vary in time and space are needed so that we can inform adaptation efforts and reduce or prevent adverse health effects. Robust health risk models could also help to inform national and international discussions about climate policies and the economic consequences of action and inaction. Interest in resolving some of the challenges facing health effects modelers and health scientists led the National Research Council's Standing Committee on Emerging Science for Environmental Health Decisions to hold a workshop on November 3-4, 2014, in Washington, DC, to explore new approaches to modeling the human health risks of climate change. Throughout the workshop, the discussions highlighted examples of current application of models, research gaps, lessons learned, and potential next steps to improve modeling of health risks associated with climate change. Modeling the Health Risks of Climate Change summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop. Table of ContentsFront Matter1 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW2 HEALTH RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE:WHAT WE KNOW AND WHY WE MODEL3 MODELING HEALTH RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: STATUS, HURDLES, AND OPPORTUNITIES4 APPLYING SYSTEMS THINKING TO UNDERSTAND FUTURE VULNERABILITIES5 MOVING FORWARDAPPENDIX A STATEMENT OF TASKAPPENDIX B WORKSHOP AGENDAAPPENDIX C WORKSHOP ATTENDEES

DKK 266.00
3

Hurricane Elena, Gulf Coast - Commission On Engineering And Technical Systems - Bog - National Academies Press - Plusbog.dk

Exploration of Antarctic Subglacial Aquatic Environments - Committee On Principles Of Environmental Stewardship For The Exploration And Study Of

Exploration of Antarctic Subglacial Aquatic Environments - Committee On Principles Of Environmental Stewardship For The Exploration And Study Of

Antarctica is renowned for its extreme cold; yet surprisingly, radar measurements have revealed a vast network of lakes, rivers, and streams several kilometers beneath the Antarctic ice sheet. Sealed from Earth's atmosphere for millions of years, they may provide vital information about microbial evolution, the past climate of the Antarctic, and the formation of ice sheets, among other things. The next stage of exploration requires direct sampling of these aquatic systems. However, if sampling is not done cautiously, the environmental integrity and scientific value of these environments could be compromised. At the request of the National Science Foundation, this National Research Council assesses what is needed to responsibly explore subglacial lakes. Exploration of Antarctic Subglacial Aquatic Environments concludes that it is time for research on subglacial lakes to begin, and this research should be guided by internationally agreed upon protocols. The book suggests an initial protocol, which includes full characterization of the lakes by remote sensing, and minimum standards for biological and other types of contamination. Table of ContentsFront MatterSummary1 Introduction2 Geological and Geophysical Setting3 Subglacial Environments: Biological Features4 Drilling and Sampling Technologies and the Potential for Contamination5 Antarctic Governance and Implications for Exploration of Subglacial Aquatic Environments6 Findings and RecommendationsReferencesA Statement of TaskB Biographical Sketches of Committee MembersC List of Acronyms

DKK 331.00
3